Booms or Busts?
Having trouble deciding what players are bound to blow up and win your league or who will implode and leave your team in the dust? We got you! Here are our picks for the top booms and busts!
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Boom: Alvin Kamara
It looks like Alvin Kamara will not end up getting suspended which is a great thing for fantasy users. His ADP is currently at 15, which is the 9th RB off the board. He has one of the highest potentials to be the highest scoring RB, even ahead of Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, and Dalvin Cook, all of which are being drafted ahead of him. When Kamara played with Winston, he was averaging 21 fantasy points per game, which was 4th amongst RBs. Going into the second round I always look for a player that has the ability to be a first rounder but fell due to preference over red flags, and with the suspension looking more and more likely to not happen, Kamara checks those boxes. If Kamara does indeed end up playing the season without a suspension he is a threat as a receiver and a runner, and will be the focus of the Saints offense.
Bust: Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams showed flashes of what he could do when Melvin Gordon was out of the picture. Unfortunately for him, the Broncos brought back Gordon. Williams ADP is currently at 16 which is insanely high for a guy who will most definitely be splitting carries at the minimum. If Gordon goes down with an injury, then Williams will for sure be a RB1 caliber player, but as long as Gordon is there Williams will have to share. On top of that Gordon ranked higher than Williams in snap share, red zone touches, route participation, dominator rating, and tied for true yards per carry, which displays that Gordon still has some gas left in the tank. Williams will be a solid RB this year, but at pick 16 there are better options available such as Saquan, Aaron Jones, Fournette, Deebo Samual, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill to name a few. At his ADP, there are just so many better, and safer options, that also carry similar upside.
Boom: Michael Pittman Jr.
I love MPJ and I love Matty Ice so this pick has a lot of bias in it. And a lot of stats. Last year Pittman ranked 55 in target accuracy, has a 76.7% catchable target rate (ranked 44) and managed to score as the 16th WR. He did this because he had a 25.7% target share (ranked 14) and 87.7% snap share. These should remain the same because the team is going to continue to be a run heavy offense with Pittman being the only real outside threat. Looking at my data chart below you will see Matt Ryan is unsurprisingly more efficient than Carson Wentz. If Pittman was able to stay alive with Wentz, he should be able to thrive with Ryan
Accuracy Rating Rank Amongst QBs | True Completion % | Deep Ball Completion % | Pressured Completion % | Play Action Completion % | Catchable Pass Rate | |
Matt Ryan | 8 | 72.5 | 47.8 (3) | 53.8 (4) | 65.6 | 78 |
Carson Wentz | 29 | 67.4 | 43.3 | 37.7 | 56 | 73.6 |
Ranks Amongst QBs are listed inside the parenthesis
Bust: Antonio Gibson
A lot of Antonio Gibsons fantasy regression is due to the Commanders. Ron Rivera clearly favors other backs such as Brian Robinson Jr. and J.D. McKissic. Robinson was receiving first team snaps this preseason and we already know McKissic is going to be the 3rd down back. Gibson receives only a 56.3% snap share, 35% route participation, and 3.9 true yards per carry. Unfortunately these numbers do not look good going into 2022. Gibson ended up ranking #28 in game script, meaning that the Commanders were down. A lot. A lot of signs are pointing against Gibson and his ADP of 41 does not carry any upside or value with other, more reliable/upside, players available.
Boom: Travis Etienne Jr
Etienne has looked impressive this offseason coming off of a season ending foot injury last year. Unfortunately for his ADP, James Robinson has looked healthy as well. While this concerns most fantasy manager I am all in on Etienne. Robinson is a solid back, but they drafted Etienne for a reason. On top of his connection with Trevor Lawrence, Etienne is an elusive back who carries a ton of PPR potential. Etienne has shown that have good hands, catching almost 50 balls in college, and has taken several reps at WR along with RB. He carries enough value to stay on the field, even if Robinson gets some plays in. Etienne ADP is 39 which is a great value for the RBs available at that pick.
Bust: David Montgomery
David Montgomery was a productive back just a couple seasons ago, but has seen a lot of decline. A lot of this is due to the Bears offense being miserable. It looks more and more like the Bears will do a lot of the same this year. Khalil Herbert showed plenty of flashes last season, which could easily earn him some more touches this season. New coach Matt Eberflus has no ties to Montgomery going into his contract year as well. Montgomery's ADP is 35 which is just too high with other available talent there with plenty more upside.